By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- Republican Kari Lake enters the home stretch in the race for U.S. Senate with a bit less than $4.5 million in the bank while her opponent, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has $7.2 million.
But the moderate difference in that bottom-line figure of what's in the bank obscures how Gallego has been collecting and burning through money in his campaign.
New reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission show that Lake collected about $7.6 million in the third quarter, most of that from individual donors. That brings her total take since starting the race to replace Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking another six-year term, to more than $16.6 million.
With funds transferred from other committees, that brings total collections to just a hair more than $19 million for the entire campaign
On the other side of the ledger, Lake spent $6.2 million in the three months ending Sept. 30, bringing total expenses to $14.5 million. That rate of spending -- less than what she was taking in -- is what enabled her to have that $4.5 million on hand, more than $2.1 million the same time three months ago.
Democrat Gallego, by contrast, collected more than $20 million in just the past three months, with his campaign hal now approaching $54 million.
But he also spent $21.4 million in the past quarter, with total expenses close to $46.9 million.
All this comes as several polls show that Lake, who has crowed about how well she said she performed in her televised debate last week against Gallego, has not really closed the gap.
Even the Republican-linked Trafalgar Group, which polled Lake trailing Gallego a month ago by about 4.2 points, concluded in a more recent survey that she still was behind by 3.7 points. And that shift may be insignificant in a poll with a 2.9 percent margin of error.
But this isn't just about the money the candidates are soliciting and collecting themselves. Other reports show that Gallego's campaign is getting major financial backing from outsiders.
The biggest is Protect Progress which spends money on Democratic candidates who support crypto currency and blockchain technology. It has spent $3.5 million on commercials for Gallego, more than it has spent for any other candidate.
Another more than $1.8 million in spending came from VoteVets. Here, too, the group's expenditure for Gallego was more than it did for for any other candidate.
Gallego's campaign also benefited from $1.7 million from the LCV Victory fund, the PAC run by the League of Conservation Voters.
And then there was close to $1 million from WinSenate PAC which is affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to buy commercials supporting Gallego.
That's only part of the picture.
WinSenate spent another $1.7 million in advertising against Lake. And there was another $1.6 million in anti-Lake commercials by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
But Lake adviser Caroline Wren chooses to look at all this spending through a different lens. In a social media post, she said this actually is a good sign for her candidate.
"I'm not really following the polls,'' Wren said. "What I do follow is the Democrats' spending because the Democrats are a lot smarter than we are when it comes to their political spending and their ability to win or lose races.''
With that in mind, Wren said she the best indicator is how much -- and where -- Schumer is spending. And she said Schumer is using more of his PAC money in Arizona than in any races in other states, even where there are Democratic incumbents trying to hold onto their seats.
And that, Wren said, suggests to her that Schumer is looking at "data points'' other than polling "which show that Kari Lake is likely to win this Senate race.''
But that outside spending has continued. And with early voting already started and Election Day less than three weeks away, Gallego continues to maintain his lead in all published polls.
This outside spending is not all one sided.
Lake also is getting indirect financial help from outside interests. But the amount pales in comparison to what those third parties are doing on behalf of Gallego.
The Senate Conservatives Fund put $186,977 into electing Lake, with much of that on direct mailings.
There was another $184,000 by the ESAFund spent on Lake's behalf which supports candidates who are interested in balancing the budget. The same group spent $1.48 million in opposition media against Gallego.
And Moms for Safe Neighborhoods reported spending more than $794,000 against Gallego.
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