By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- Republicans continue to build their voter registration edge in Arizona.
Whether that translates to victory at the polls, however, remains to be seen.
New figures Friday from the Secretary of State's office show there were more than 1.56 million Republicans on the voter registration rolls. That compares with almost 1.44 at the same time two years ago.
Yuma County has 30,363 registered Democrats, 35,703 Republicans and 44,209 independent voters for a total of 111,666 registered voters, according to state numbers.
But what makes that significant in a growing state is that GOP faithful now make up 35.77% of nearly 4.37 million active registrants, up from 34.67 in 2022.
By contrast, Democrats continue to lose share. Their current 1.27 million adherents makes up just 29.0% of all registered voters, down from 30.66% two years ago.
Meanwhile, the number of voters with no party affiliation grew slightly. But their percentage of the total electorate slipped to just 33.69 of those eligible to vote.
One change of note is the emergence of the No Labels Party which didn't exist two years ago.
It originally was formed to provide a base for launching a presidential bid among those dissatisfied with the nominees of either major party. That never happened.
Yet now there are 32,338 registered with the party -- more than are signed up with either the Libertarian or Green parties, enough to make up 0.74% of total registrants.
But it's not just in pure registration that Republicans are ahead.
New figures gathered by Uplift Data show that 508,312 Republicans already have returned their early ballots statewide. That's more than 85,000 more than Democrats.
Independents are far behind at less than 277,000 returned early ballots.
Overall, Uplift Data reports that GOP early returns to date are running 42,000 ahead of where they were at the same time four years ago; Democrats are lagging by 160,000 from where they were at this time in 2020.
Some of this is no surprise.
For the past two election cycles, Republican candidates actually urged supporters not to vote early. And if they had received early ballots, they were told to hang onto them until Election Day and drop them at the polls.
All that was based on false claims by GOP candidates that turning in ballots early, where they can be tabulated, created an opportunity for Democrats to cheat.
This year, however, presidential hopeful Donald Trump, who has continued to make unsubstantiated allegations that the 2020 election was stolen, is telling crowds to get those ballots in the mail. Ditto Kari Lake, who lost the gubernatorial race in 2022 and now is hoping to be elected to the U.S. Senate.
Still, that GOP registration edge may make little difference if the candidates can't appeal to the party faithful.
Consider what happened two years ago.
There were 2,592,313 ballots cast statewide. But the total number of those who voted in the gubernatorial contest was 2,559,485 -- meaning nearly 33,000 people skipped over that race. And Lake lost by 17,117 votes even as other, less controversial Republicans like Kimberly Yee won her race for state treasurer.
There also already are signs of some ticket-splitting in this year's election.
Polling in Arizona shows Trump holds a narrow lead in the presidential race over Democrat Kamala Harris. But those same polls show Democrat Ruben Gallego with a comfortable lead -- double digits in one survey -- over Lake.
The changes in registration counts during the past two years among Arizona counties show some significant differences.
In Maricopa County, for example, Democrats did gain some registrants -- but fewer than 8,000. By contrast, GOP registration in the state's largest county was up by nearly 76,000.
Yet in Pima County, one of the few where Democrats have long outnumbered Republicans, total Democratic registration is now just 245,471. That's down by more than 4,500.
And the GOP picked up about 8,000 on its side of the ledger.
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Current voter registration figures
County / Dems / Republicans /Independents / Total*
Apache / 27,343 / 11,856 / 14,365 / 54.060
Cochise / 19, 164 / 32,950 / 28,792 / 82,242
Coconino / 35,384 / 23,909 / 29,762 / 90,681
Gila / 7,972 / 16,935 / 9,338 / 34,653
Graham / 4,391 / 10,718 / 5,39 / 20,714
La Paz / 2,086 / 5,719 / 4,355 / 12,375
Maricopa / 739,701 / 917,074 / 888,445 / 2,587,196
Mohave / 18,747 / 82,271 /44,689 / 147,549
Navajo / 22,582 / 27,441 / 18,929 / 69,774
Pima / 245,471 / 186,711 / 220,377 / 662,357
Pinal / 65,633 / 112,598 / 99,744 / 282,639
Santa Cruz / 13,865 / 5,807 / 11,778 / 31,758
Yavapai / 32,540 / 90,537 / 49,675 / 175,209
Yuma / 30,363 / 35,703 / 44,209 / 111,666
Total / 1,266,636 / 1,562,091 / 1,471,309 / 4,367,593
Percentages / 29.00% / 35.77% / 33.69% / --
*Includes Libertarian, No Labels and Green Party registrants