By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- Another 52,350 Arizonans filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week.
That brings to more than 470,000 the tally of those who have sought help since the COVID-19 outbreak and the orders of Gov. Doug Ducey closing down certain businesses and limiting individual travel.
On paper, that translates out to more than 13 percent of the total state workforce of nearly 3.6 million. And that would set a record.
But the numbers -- and the calculation of the unemployment rate -- may not add up.
First, the broader eligibility established under federal law allows people to seek benefits who are not actually out of work but whose hours have been cut.
Second, the claims also include those who have been self-employed. And they never have been counted in the total workforce and their work situations have never affected the official jobless rate.
Finally, there are unusual situations where companies have furloughed workers for one week a month. That makes them eligible for the benefits of up to $840 -- the $240 basic cap plus the additional $600 available through federal dollars.
But it leaves the question of how DES counts them three weeks later, after they go back to work but then are laid off again.
All this comes as the head of the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry is saying that one solution to the large number of people out of work is to retrain them to do something else.
Glenn Hamer said while the pandemic has shuttered many businesses it actually will be creating opportunities.
"One example would be we are going to need an aggressive contact-tracing program as we move forward and open up parts of the economy that have been frozen,'' he said. Hamer figures that could be anywhere from 500 to 1,000 people in Arizona alone who work the phones and reach out to people who may have been in contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19.
He figures those could be good jobs for people who until the pandemic had been working in bars, restaurants and other elements of the hospitality industry.
Hamer also figures there will be additional demand for people with technical skills who can help internet and telephone companies increase broadband capacity to deal with the fact that more people are working from home and teleconferences have replaced face-to-face meetings.
"There are certainly areas of the economy that are going to require new workers and new skills,'' Hamer said.
He acknowledged that, in many cases, the people who are seeking unemployment benefits are those who presume they will be getting their old jobs back when the economy recovers. And they may see no benefit in training for and taking another job in the interim.
And then there's the fact that someone who has been laid off can take in up to $840 a week. But Hamer said he's not deterred.
"People want to work,'' he said. And Hamer said that the skills they pick up would provide "versatility,'' giving them a chance to expand their job prospects when the economy recovers.
Anyway, he said, the enhanced benefits run only through the end of July unless extended. And that would leave those still out of work with a maximum of $240 a week -- the equivalent of $6 an hour.
Less clear is who would pay for all that retraining.
Hamer said the state has some funds. And he figures there might be additional dollars flowing from Washington.
The chamber -- and its members -- have a financial interest in minimizing the number of people collecting benefits.
The state benefits are paid from a trust account created by a tax each company pays on the first $7,000 of each employee's income. As the funds in the account are drained, they will have to be replaced eventually by higher premiums on what employers pay.
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Week ending / Initial claims / continued claims
Jan. 4 / 3,132 / 17,991
Jan. 11 / 4,654 / 18,259
Jan. 18 / 4,152 / 18,421
Jan. 25 / 3,475 / 18,401
Feb. 1 / 3,087 / 18,854
Feb. 8 / 3,636 / 18,461
Feb. 15 / 3,538 / 18,516
Feb. 22 / 3,151 / 18,217
Feb. 29 / 3,086 / 18,137
Mar. 7 / 3,357 / 17,593
Mar. 14 / 3,844 / 17,595
Mar. 21 / 29,348 / 18,108
Mar. 28 / 88,688 / 26,381
Apr. 4 / 132,382 / 62,566
Apr. 11 / 95,495 / 120,452
Apr. 18 / 72,433 / 170,200
Apr. 25 / 52,350 / 250,507
-- Source: Arizona Department of Economic Security
