LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Russia is building up its military presence along its borders with NATO countries, the latest reportedly with Finland. That's raising concerns across Europe as the U.S. retreats from its support for the decades-old alliance. Nations that share a border with Russia are especially concerned, including Finland and former Soviet Baltic states like Estonia and Latvia.
Fiona Hill joins me now to discuss. She's a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a nonprofit think tank based in Washington, D.C. She's also served as senior director for European and Russian affairs on the U.S. National Security Council during President Trump's first administration. Good morning. Thanks for being on the program.
FIONA HILL: Good morning, Leila. Thanks for having me.
FADEL: So what is Russia's President Vladimir Putin signaling to Europe by boosting its military presence along the border of NATO allies like this?
HILL: Well, I think the significant thing here, Leila, is that, unfortunately, this is the return of the Russian troops rather than a boost of the troops. The Finns were expecting this. It's the longest border between a NATO country and Russia, the Finnish border. And what happened was when the Russians were building up their forces in Ukraine or on the border with Ukraine in anticipation of their invasion, the Finns noted that they pulled the troops away from that border, and the Finns were extraordinary concerned about what would happen, obviously, if the troops went back again, which is what we've seen.
And they've been preparing for that eventuality, including through their decision to join NATO in the first instance. We also have the NATO summit coming up in a few weeks, around June 24. And it's very clear from this pattern that Russia always adopts ahead of some big event for the Europeans or for Ukraine - for example, like the peace talks, we had, you know, a huge drone attack on Ukraine - that Russia likes to signal that it's there, that it's ready, that it's in a constant state of vigilance.
FADEL: So is it just symbolic then? I mean, why do this when the Russian military has suffered major losses in the war in Ukraine? I mean, does Russia actually have the capacity for a conflict with a NATO member, which would then possibly trigger a fight with its NATO allies?
HILL: Well, Russia has a lot of capacity for intimidation. We've got all kinds of sabotage operations going on. We've got threats to critical national infrastructure, which we've already seen. It's not just the question of, you know, men on the border, you know, preparing for perspective invasion. There's obviously a deterrence and intimidation element to all of this. It's certainly not symbolic, and it's not performative. But the Russians are using all kinds of different tactics at the moment. But what it is is a signal to Finland and to other vulnerable countries on the border that Russia is there.
And, you know, given what we heard in the last segment, the militarized economy, there's an awful lot of incentives for Putin to keep on building up the military even if things on the battlefield are not going as he desires because he's got the constant state of readiness in the Russian Armed Forces, he needs excuses to keep people in the military. He's going to have a very hard time dismantling this military apparatus that he's set up, and he'll want it back on those key borders with NATO countries. So it's a concern not just for Finland, but also for Norway, as we've already mentioned, the Baltic states.
FADEL: Yeah.
HILL: And for countries like Poland that are also in the vicinity.
FADEL: How are European leaders responding to these build-ups?
HILL: Well, they're getting very serious about it. We've just had a summit between the U.K. and the European Union, for example, where they've talked about security and tried to reset their relationship. There's a whole host of discussions about the prospects of the European members of NATO building up their own pillar of security. The European Union's put money to one side now to boost its defense. Most of the European countries now are boosting their own defense. The U.K. has done the same. The U.K. is about to roll out a strategic defense review that talks very directly about what's happening with Russia and also in Ukraine. So we can see they're getting prepared.
The risk for the United Kingdom and for the Europeans writ large now is that Russia gets, you know, aggressive much more quickly than anticipated. You know, we've talked about this three- to five-year time frame, and, you know, it's going to take some time for them to be able to bridge over to their own capacities and move away from the dependency on the United States. So we're seeing an awful lot of maneuvering at this moment, and, you know, particularly the Russians trying to take advantage, you know, of what's happening in the United States with discussions about retrenchment from Europe and hoping that they'll be able to intimidate the Europeans in that gap in that vacuum that we may have.
FADEL: Really quickly, then, with the U.S., if you could just expand on that. I mean, there's just a total vacuum, no dependence on the U.S. at this point, yet Europe is going to try to depend on itself?
HILL: Yes, that's exactly what's trying to happen. They're trying to persuade, you know, the United States to stay in the game in terms of guaranteeing European security until they, you know, fully have their act together in terms of building up their own defense capacities. But we're seeing that. And I think that's one of the reasons why Russia's moving.
FADEL: That's Fiona Hill. She's a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Thank you for being back on the program.
HILL: Thanks, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
