New polling of registered voters in Arizona shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden 44 to 41 percent.
But pollsters say Mr. Trump isn’t gaining support so much as Biden is losing it.
NPI says Trump is polling below Election Day 2016 numbers, when he won 49 percent of the vote, and 2020 numbers when he lost with 48 percent.
Biden is also running behind 2020 numbers, when he won the election with 49.4 percent of the vote. Additionally, a May 2020 poll ahead of the previous election had Biden at 50 percent, though that was not a directly comparable poll.
Third-party candidates change the outcomes slightly. NPI says candidates like Robert Kennedy, Jr. are hurting Biden more than Trump. With Trump gaining more in a more crowded field.
The bottom line for mainstream candidates – neither is polling as well as 4 years ago.
The poll also found for the first time that support for Trump outpaces support for the Republican Party as a whole.