By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- Arizonans are in no danger of losing all their water.
But the state's top water official is warning that unless a deal is reached with other states, cuts in Colorado River water deliveries could lead to Arizonans having to change their lifestyles.
Tom Buschatzke said Tuesday there is a stalemate of sorts between Arizona and the "lower basin'' states on one side and the four "upper basin'' states over who is going to have to absorb anticipated cuts in water deliveries as there simply is not enough water in the river.
Buschatzke said that talks continue but that, so far, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming say they shouldn't have to share in future cuts in river allocation.
But he said that, absent some "give'' by those upper basin states the loss of so much Colorado River water will be felt. Ditto, Buschatzke said, of what happens if the federal government imposes its own solution that forces most of the cuts to be absorbed by the lower basin states of Arizona, California and Nevada.
"We're not going to live in a place where you turn on the tap and nothing's coming out,'' he said.
But what would be likely, are "lifestyle'' changes.
For example, Buschatzke said that could start with restrictions on residential landscaping.
But what less fresh water also means is greater need to pursue alternate water sources, notably what's colloquially known as "toilet-to-tap'' where wastewater is processed to the point it can be put back into the drinking water supply. That, too, has a price -- and not just financially.
He said much of that treated sewage is now being used to maintain wildlife habitats and riparian restoration. Buschatzke said Arizonans will need to make some "policy choices'' on exactly how important those are those areas.
But the big unknown, he said will be the impact on the Arizona economy of having less water, "which is going to impact everybody.''
At the heart of what's happening is related to the fact that the water that everyone thought would be available when a deal was first cut in 1922 just isn't there.
Buschatzke said that Arizona, California and Nevada believe the upper basin states have to deliver more than 8.3 million acre feet a year. An acre foot is the amount of water that could serve three or four households, depending on use.
More to the point, he said Arizona believes that obligation exists regardless of the flow. And that, said Buschatzke, means forced reductions in what those upper basin states can use.
The upper basin states, citing the overall reduced flow, contend they shouldn't have to cut what they use. They also have a different view of what the existing agreements require.
Any failure to reach an agreement, he said, throws the issue to the federal government. And Buschatzke said that having Trump in the White House could be helpful.
He said the Biden administration put together its own "alternative report'' about how the shortage should be handled, one that did not consider proposals submitted by the affected states. And Buschatzke said a request to rescind that report "has not happened.''
"But I think the current administration is more willing to tweak alternatives and to talk with us, collectively, the seven states, about something different that may be a collaboratively created alternative,'' he said. "This administration is taking more of the tack that we asked for,'' he said, meaning that both the upper and lower basin states should share some "risk'' in having to take cuts.
And if there is no cooperative deal?
"If there's no collaborative outcome, I believe the federal government will move forward with whatever alternative they want to analyze,'' Buschatzke said. "And you probably won't like what they analyze.''
If everything else falls apart, the state does have a contingency plan.
Buschatzke has asked state lawmakers to give him $1 million that he can set aside to hire lawyers to file suit if that becomes necessary. Gov. Katie Hobbs already has given her blessing to the proposals, though the Republican-controlled Legislature has yet to approve it.
The governor does insist, as does her water chief, that it's only fair that the upper basin states agree to accept some cuts to ensure Arizona is not damaged.
"Our growing economy is not just important to Arizona,'' she said. "It is important to the nation's economy, to national security, to moving manufacturing back to America.''
But the governor sidestepped a question about whether, given the limited water supply, a proposed new copper mine at Oak Flat in Pinal County makes sense.
The transfer of federal land for the controversial project has been held up because of litigation by Native American tribes over the destruction of the land they consider culturally and spiritually important. But that still leaves the issue of whether the project makes sense, with one estimate saying it would consume 250 billion gallons of water over its lifetime, equal to the annual water needs of a city of 140,000 for 40 years.
"All of these projects, again, go back to that conversation about the economic growth and the dependence that a clean energy future has on critical mineral mining, on copper mining,'' she said.
"It is imperative that we work to find the right balance so that we can continue to build a sector, to contribute to our national security and our continued path forward,'' Hobbs said. "And mining is a part of that.''
Hobbs also said she has no answer to a question of whether the state should be more transparent in disclosing the amount of water used by certain industrial users, including data centers.
That would allow for a greater public discussion about whether such development should be priority. But the state does not keep track of how much each uses.
"That's a good question, not something that I've thought about,'' the governor said. "And certainly something we can look at doing more about.''
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