By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- The U.S. Department of Labor is formally acknowledging that the crackdown on illegal immigration could result in fewer farm workers and boost food prices even higher.
In a new filing in the Federal Register, the agency acknowledges that labor costs already are a major component of the cost of agriculture, "especially in the specialty crop sectors where relatively large numbers of illegal aliens are employed.''
"Given the scale, speed, and investment in the federal government's efforts to enforce immigration laws and restore the integrity of the U.S. border, the Department concludes that there will be significant labor market effects in the agricultural sector, which has long been pushed to depend on a workforce with a high proportion of illegal aliens,'' the filing states.
More to the point, the agency says that those legal residents who are unemployed or working only part time now are unlikely to suddenly decide to take the jobs that are no longer filled by immigrant labor.
"Without swift action, agricultural employers will be unable to maintain operations, and the nation's food supply will be at risk,'' according to the notice.
The filing is not being done in a vacuum.
Instead, it is part of a move by the Department of Labor to make it easier for farmers to hire migrant workers they who can come into the country through the H-2A visa program. That program allows foreign nationals to enter the country to perform seasonal labor where there is a shortage of domestic workers.
More to the point, the rules would allow farmers to pay those they employ through this program less than they do now. That is designed to deal with the fact that farmers hire -- and depend on -- illegal immigrant workers.
"A substantial body of research estimates that illegal alien workers earn between 4% and 24% less than similarly situated legal workers, giving employers a strong financial incentive to hire illegal labor,'' the Labor Department filing says.
So the solution, the agency says, is to close the gap between what farmers have to pay under the H-2A program and what they already are paying those not here legally.
"Without prompt action, agricultural employers will face severe labor shortages, resulting in disruption to food production, higher prices, and reduced access for U.S. consumers, particularly to fresh fruits and vegetables,'' according to the filing.
The agency also concludes that there's no particular reason to leave wages farmers are required to pay migrant labor where they are in hopes of finding more legal U.S. workers to take some of the jobs at those rates, often barely above minimum wage.
"The Department concludes that qualified and eligible U.S. workers will not make themselves available in sufficient numbers, even at current wage levels, to fill the significant labor shortage in the agricultural sector,'' its filing states.
So that leaves the alternative the Labor Department is enacting: let farmers pay legal migrant workers even less than they do now.
The American Farm Bureau Federation figures that for those with minimal skills -- people who would not require training -- that new minimum in Arizona would be $15.32 an hour. That is 10% less than now.
It also is only 17 cents above the minimum wage that other employers have to pay in Arizona for jobs that may be more attractive than farm labor.
For those at a higher skill level, the new figure for Arizona would be $18.01.
But that doesn't tell the whole story. It also permits even lower pay for those who are provided free housing by the farmer.
The Farm Bureau Federation says that figure for Arizona for pay for a minimally skilled worker provided housing would be $13.22. But these workers still would have to be paid that $15.15 minimum wage anyway, providing no relief to farmers.
Not everyone is happy with the change.
"The Trump wage cut is a catastrophe for American workers in agriculture who growers intend to replace with cheap and exploitable foreign guest workers,'' said Teresa Romero, president of United Farm Workers.
"When guest worker wages are lowered, it is American jobs that are lost,'' she said in a prepared statement.
Romero also noted there are no limits to the number of workers who can be brought into the country on H-2A visas. She also said there is fraud within the program which results in those with H-2A visas taking jobs in construction and other industry.
"The Trump wage cuts open the gates to potentially unlimited American job losses,'' Romero said.
Mark Krikorian, director of the Center for Immigration Studies, told The Washington Post the move is "a mistake.''
"I think the administration has been doing good work on immigration, but in this instance what they're doing is reducing the incentive for farmers to move away from relying on cheap immigrant labor,'' said Krikorian. His organization describes itself as having "a unique pro-immigrant, low-immigration vision which seeks fewer immigrants but a warmer welcome for those admitted.''
In some ways, the decision by the Department of Labor to ease wages for legal foreign farm workers is a direct contradiction of claims made earlier this summer by Brooke Rollins. The Secretary of Agriculture argued that new work requirements for Medicaid recipients -- a provision in the "Big Beautiful Bill'' approved by Congress -- should mean many of those who want to keep the benefits will fill the jobs now being done by undocumented labor.
"The mass deportations continue,'' she said at an event at her agency's offices in July. But she said they will be done "in a strategic way, and we move the workforce towards automation and 100% American participation.''
But the Department of Labor, in its filing, said that the higher wage rates for visa holders implemented on Oct. 2 "have not resulted in a meaningful increase in new entrants of U.S. workers to temporary or seasonal agricultural jobs.''
"Agricultural work remains physically demanding, often takes places in remote locations, carries health and safety risks, and typically lacks advancement opportunities -- factors that continue to discourage participation by the domestic workforce,'' the filing says.
In some ways, nothing in this conclusion is new.
As far back as 2006, John McCain, a Republican state senator from Arizona, was an advocate for comprehensive immigration reform. That led to protests by some union members who said that migrants would take jobs for Americans.
"I'll offer anybody here $50 an hour if you go pick lettuce in Yuma this season and pick for the whole season,'' he responded. There were no reports of anyone taking him up on his offer.
The Labor Department acknowledged that hired domestic farm workers make up less than 1% of all employed. But that number, the agency said, doesn't account for the fact "these workers are essential to U.S. agriculture.''
And there are ripple effects.
"One study found that a mere 10% decrease in the agricultural workforce can lead to as much as a 4.2% drop in fruit and vegetable production,'' the Labor Department says. "Given that approximately 42% of the U.S. crop workforce are unable to enter the country, potentially subject to removal or voluntarily leaving the labor force, these impacts will likely be dramatically higher.''
According to the Farm Bureau Federation there were 12,800 H-2A positions certified in Arizona in 2024 out of 384,900. Florida has the most at more than 47,000, followed by Georgia, California and Washington.
But the number of actual visas actually issued by the State Department was about 310,000 as some employers may not follow through.
The most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that inflation in August boosted prices overall by 2.9% in the past year. That included a 3.2% increase for food.
Figures for Phoenix -- the only city BLS studies on a monthly basis -- were somewhat different, with inflation up 1.4% year over year, including 1.0% for food.
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