By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- How desperate are Arizona grocers to get you into their stores?
Desperate enough apparently to offer lower prices for turkeys to their customers than last year despite what appear to be higher wholesale prices due to bird flu.
And what that means is that the typical traditional Thanksgiving dinner should costs Arizonans slightly less this year than a year ago.
The Arizona Farm Bureau Federation figures that the 10-item market basket including the turkey, all the fixings and even desert for a family of 10 should put the average shopper back $53.17. That's down 21 cents from a year ago.
As always, the big ticket item is the centerpiece. And the Farm Bureau's shoppers who go to local grocers said they were able to purchase a 16-pound young tom turkey on average for about $1.18 a pound.
What's surprising, according to Julie Murphree, outreach coordinator for organization, is that is less than the $1.21 a pound a year ago.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has been reporting that U.S. turkey meat production this year is projected to hit 4.8 billion pounds, down from more than 5.1
million in 2024. And much of that is due to the bird flu, a highly contagious virus that has caused some supply shortages.
In fact, Brad Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, said in a podcast that wholesale prices for turkeys have increased about 40%.
So why the disconnect between wholesale and retail prices?
Murphree said it's a simple matter of marketing.
"The turkey, which is the centerpiece of the Thanksgiving day meal, it's a willing loss most of the time for your retail stores,'' she said. Murphree said that retailers realize that once shopper are in the store, their grocery carts are likely to fill up with other higher-margin items.
And this year's shopping list from the Arizona Farm Bureau does find some items with higher price tags than last year, things like fresh cranberries, pie shells and sweet potatoes.
But Murphree said there's another factor at play.
Yes, she said, the number of live turkeys produced this year is down from last year. But that doesn't paint a full picture.
"We have frozen bird inventories that are up 4% from the previous year at this time,'' Murphree said.
What's important to note in all this, however, is that annual the survey is based on the shelf price that federation shoppers found when they went to the store.
More to the point, it does not include the additional savings that may be available for customers who hold a grocer's affinity card.
And there are some deals to be had, as grocers cut prices even more on key items in hopes that it will get shoppers into their stores -- and filling up their baskets with everything else.
Watch the food ads.
The annual survey by the Farm Bureau is based on shelf prices, without coupons or discounts for those who have a store's affinity cards. So shoppers should be able to find turkeys at prices below the $1.18 a pound average in the annual report.
For example, Fry's already is advertising Butterball turkeys at 99 cents a pound for those who have their affinity card if they also buy $25 worth of other groceries. And its own Kroger turkeys are being offered under the same conditions at 89 cents a pound.
Bashas' is going one better, with a deal for Norbest turkeys at 67 cents a pound for shoppers with the store's discount card.
And it could be a race to the bottom, with Safeway and Albertsons advertising that they will match whatever price and deal is being offered by Fry's and Bashas'.
But if you're planning ahead for that big dinner, remember that it takes about four days in the refrigerator -- the preferred method -- to defrost a 16-pound bird.
On X, Bluesky and Threads: @azcapmedia
Item / 2025 / 2024
Self-basting 16 lb. young tom turkey / $18.89 / $19.36
14-ounce cubed stuffing mix / $4.01 / $3.73
Pumpkin pie mix (30 oz.) / $4.22 / $4.67
9-inch frozen pie shell (2) / $3.40 / $3.32
3 lb. fresh sweet potatoes / $5.14 / $4.60
Enriched brown & serve rolls (12) / $3.75 / $4.01
Frozen peas (16 oz.) / $1.76 / $1.78
1 lb mixed celery & carrots / $1.32 / $0.93
1 gallon whole milk / $2.59 / $3.01
Fresh cranberries (12 oz.) / $2.41 / $2.13
Half pint whipping cream / $2.20 / $2.08
Miscellaneous (onions, coffee, sugar, flour, evaporated milk, butter) / $3.48 / $3.75
Other options (not included in total):
Frozen green beans (pound) / $1.93 / $2.62
Russet potatoes (5 pound bag) / $2.59 / $3.69
Fresh boneless ham (per pound) / $3.94 / $3.76
-- Source: Arizona Farm Bureau Federation
Arizona Price history:*
Year -- Price-check
2025 -- $53.17
2024 -- $53.38
2023 -- $51.90
2022 -- $71.88
2021 -- $49.62
2020 -- $47.02
2019 -- $42.68
2018 -- $39.17
2017 -- $39.82
2016 -- $46.27
2015 -- $47.83
2014 -- $46.16
2013 -- $48.63
2012 -- $47.53
2011 -- $50.06
2010 -- $44.17
2009 -- $40.47
2008 -- $52.81
2007 -- $51.14
2006 -- $39.22
2005 -- $37.69
2004 -- $35.22
2003 -- no Arizona survey
2002 -- $34.43
2001 -- $34.05
2000 -- $34.11
1999 -- $33.82
1998 -- $27.41
1997 -- $26.14
1996 -- $30.37
1995 -- $28.68
1994 -- $26.93
1993 -- $24.99
-- Source: Arizona Farm Bureau Federation
* Prices not adjusted for inflation
