Arizona officials blame water supply for decision to not issue new housing permits near Phoenix

By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- State water officials said Thursday they won't issue any permits for new subdivisions for some areas on the fringes of Phoenix, the first real acknowledgment that the state's water supply cannot support all of the anticipated growth.
Tom Buschatzke, the director of the Department of Water Resources, said a newly completed analysis of the groundwater in the basin in and around Phoenix shows there simply won't be enough to provide the legally required 100-year supply of water. State law requires such assurances in the major metropolitan areas before construction can take place.
He put the shortage at 4.9 million acre feet over the next century, about 4 percent of the anticipated need. An acre foot is generally considered enough to serve three families for a year.
What that most immediately means is that developers in affected areas who were awaiting the go-ahead to build won't get them.
But nothing in the new order will bring all development in the Phoenix metro area to a halt, at least not at this point.
That's because all existing municipal and private water companies are currently presumed to have their own 100-year supply. And so anyone seeking to build homes within that service territory -- and who the utility agrees to serve -- is presumed to have the amount of water required and can start construction without further state approval.
But the order could bring some of the urban sprawl around Phoenix to a halt.
Affected areas include some of the largest tracts of undeveloped land in the fringe suburbs.
That includes much of Queen Creek which doesn't have its own 100-year certificate of assured water supply. Instead, it has been seeking to import water from other areas.
The same is true of a large swath of Buckeye. And then there are large unincorporated areas, all of which Buschatzke said the modeling shows cannot guarantee that there will be enough groundwater beneath them to support the development for 100 years.
Buschatzke said, though, construction can take place continue if developers find source beyond the water under their development which can range from another community's stored water credits to obtaining an allocation of surface water, perhaps from Native American tribes who have their own water rights.
Gov. Katie Hobbs viewed the new analysis as proof that there is no reason to put curbs on future growth.
"My message to Arizonans is this: We are not out of water and we will not be running out of water,'' she said at a press briefing.
"It is also incredibly important to note that the model relates only to groundwater and does not concern surface water supplies which are a significant source of renewable water for our state,'' Hobbs said. "What the model ultimately shows is that our water future is secure.''
But all those assurances are based on something that even Buschatzke could not guarantee: that Arizona won't see further cutbacks in its allocation of Colorado River water.
Arizona and other lower-basin states just entered into an agreement to cut usage in exchange for federal cash.
But that deal lasts only into 2026. After that, Buschatzke said, is an unknown.
A particularly wet winter has improved the flow into the river and dampened talk that Lake Mead could reach "dead pool,'' a point at which no river would flow past the dam. But what that means beyond 2026, Buschatzke said, is unknown.
"The cuts are going to be based on what the hydrology provides every year on the river and what the levels of Lake Powell and Lake Mead are,'' he said.
Hobbs, flanked by a developer and the head of the state's economic development agency, sought to give a message -- presumably meant for outsiders -- that things are not bad in Arizona despite the latest announcement.
It starts with that fact that none of this has any immediate effect on developing vacant land in communities that have their own assured water supply.
The governor also said nothing in the new order affects 80,000 lots in the areas where the state won't issue new permits. The Department of Water Resources already has provided the required certificate of assured water supply. And Buschatzke acknowledged that a "lot'' can translate to more than a single family home.
And Hobbs said there are no limits on industrial development. Nor are there new restrictions on everything from fountains to golf courses that dot the Phoenix area.
Hobbs also crowed about the fact that reservoirs controlled by Salt River Project are full. While these are a source of water for agriculture in the area, SRP also has deals with cities to provide them with surface water.
Even with all that, there's still that 4% gap between water pumping and recharge.
"We have to close this gap and find efficiencies for our water use, manage our aquifers wisely and increase our utilization of renewable supplies,'' the governor said.
But Hobbs has yet to seek, much less try go impose any form of conservation. The closest she came to acknowledging that people should use less was setting aside $40 million in COVID relief funds -- money she actually took back from programs that her predecessor Gov. Doug Ducey had allocated to others -- to promote water conservation.
"This is a down payment on my commitment to building a sustainable water future,'' the governor said. "It will not be a complete answer but it's an important first step in the work we have to do.''
That question of Colorado River supplies beyond 2026 will have an affect on not just the Phoenix area, the one that was just studied.
Other areas of the state, particularly the Tucson region, also rely on this supply. And Buschatzke's agency has no firm date for when it will perform the same evaluation of groundwater in the Tucson area -- and possibly could issue similar orders for development in that basin.
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