PHOENIX (February 26, 2025) – With over a year until the 2026 gubernatorial primary, Arizona Republicans remain largely undecided on their preferred candidate, according to the latest Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) survey by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI).
The poll provides insight into voter preferences for both the primary and general election.
The survey, conducted from February 11–13, 2025, polled 1,006 registered Arizona voters, including 374 Republicans. The results indicate an unsettled race:
- Andy Biggs and Charlie Kirk each received 14% support
- Karrin Taylor Robson followed with 11%
- Jack McCain garnered 8%
- Kimberly Yee received 5%
- Jake Hoffman trailed with 1%
Nearly half of GOP voters remain undecided. "Arizona Republicans are still getting to know their potential candidates," said David Byler, Chief of Research at NPI.
Kirk, Biggs, and Taylor Robson currently have the highest favorability ratings, while electability remains uncertain. GOP voters see Kirk (34%), Biggs (33%), and Taylor Robson (32%) as slightly stronger contenders than McCain (23%), Yee (20%), and Hoffman (17%).
President Donald Trump remains a dominant force in the race, with 71% of GOP respondents saying they would be more likely to support a candidate backed by him, and 41% saying they would be “much more likely.”
While Trump has not officially endorsed a candidate, Karrin Taylor Robson has previously received his verbal backing, which could be crucial in her campaign. A formal endorsement from Trump could shift the race significantly.
“We’re over a year away from this election," Byler noted. "Voters don’t know the candidates yet, but they know what type of candidate they want.”
When asked about the most important qualities in a Republican nominee, voters prioritized:
- Strong border enforcement (66%)
- Loyalty to Trump (53%)
- Tax and government spending cuts (53%)
- Ability to solve local issues (50%)
When selecting a single defining quality, 27% prioritized Trump loyalty, followed by strong border enforcement (19%) and general electability (10%).
“The data makes one thing clear: this is Donald Trump’s party,” said Mike Noble, CEO of NPI. “Border security aligns with Trump’s priorities, and voters want a Trump ally as their nominee.”
The survey also tested potential Republican nominees against incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs, revealing a close race. The strongest GOP contenders—McCain and Biggs—poll within striking distance of Hobbs.
Despite her incumbent status, Hobbs lacks a clear advantage. "With multiple Republican candidates polling closely, this will be a competitive race," said Noble.
Party loyalty may be a key factor. While at least 80% of Democrats support Hobbs, only about 70% of Republicans back their candidates. However, with many undecided GOP voters, the nominee has room to gain support.
“The GOP is the larger party, and with more undecided Republicans, this remains a very close race,” Byler concluded.
With no clear GOP frontrunner and a tight general election forecast, the 2026 Arizona governor’s race is wide open. Trump’s influence and voter priorities will shape the coming months as candidates define their platforms and seek key endorsements.
