By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- Democratic governors are pumping $10 million into Arizona to protect who they believe is the most vulnerable incumbent in the 2026 race.
And there may be more cash coming -- all on top of the money that Katie Hobbs herself and the Democratic party apparatus in Arizona have collected and are spending.
"Arizona is the swing state in 2024 that Trump won by the most,'' said Sam Newton, communications chief for the Democratic Governors Association. "We know that this is a really competitive race.''
He also noted that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by more than 300,000. And then there's the fact that Hobbs managed to squeak into office in 2022 by just 17,117 votes against Kari Lake, a Republican with no experience in elective office and who divided the state GOP.
"So we're making this investment at a very critical time when people are tuning in and at the start of the general election,'' Newton said.
The infusion comes as Andy Biggs, the Republican nominee, already is trailing in cash.
He had to spend $2.4 million to win the four-way GOP primary, leaving him with about $1.2 million as of July 1. And, to date, there has been no commitment by the Republican Governors Association, which in the 2022 race, already had booked $10.2 million in advertising in March of that year in hopes of hanging on to the open seat being vacated by Republican Doug Ducey.
"I think they believe I can win,'' said Biggs, who made a trip to Colorado last week to meet with RGA officials at a political retreat. "Part of what I was doing was meeting with individual governors who will support me and will join in raising money for me.
And Biggs said the fact the DGA is putting so much into the race shows that organization also believes he can win.
The infusion from the Democratic governors boosts the incumbent governor's already huge financial edge.
Unopposed in her primary, she already has spent more than $11 million, including $7 million in the past three months.
All that leaves Biggs in the financial dust.
With just $1.2 million in the bank, Biggs has been forced him to focus his media efforts on non-traditional media, meaning commercials that people can watch on their computers, phones, and tablets. The GOP contender, however, said he remains convinced that more and more people are getting their political news and views through the online sources that he can currently afford -- and not the more expensive TV time that Hobbs has been buying
The proof, he said, is in the polls.
A survey done in February by Noble Predictive Insights had Hobbs the choice of 42% of those questioned. Yet by May -- even as she was spending campaign funds -- Noble put her at 41%.
"It didn't seem to move the needle for her,'' Biggs said.
The governor's campaign declined to make her available to comment on the spending and on the news that DGA would be putting more money into giving Hobbs another four years in office. Nor would her campaign spokesman comment on finances.
Instead, Michael Beyer provided a prepared saying that Biggs' campaign "flounders'' because of a position he took while Senate president where he effectively blocked legislation that would have disbanded the police department in the polygamous community of Colorado City over allegations that it conspired with the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints to hide underage marriages.
That 2013 measure was approved by the House on a 52-7 bipartisan margin. But Biggs campaign spokesman Drew Sexton said that he considered it "poorly written legislation which was too broad and opposed by the Arizona Police Association.''
In the meantime, the governor's increasing presence in TV commercials has put Biggs on the defensive, seeking to undermine them with claims that they are "deceptive.''
One has a claim that Hobbs as governor has done something about the cost of living, including "reducing utility bills.''
"I'm having trouble finding anybody who believes their utilities have gone down in the last 3 1/2 years under Katie Hobbs,'' Biggs said.
The governor's claim is based at least in part about the role of the Residential Utility Consumer Office, established by lawmakers in 1983 to represent the interests of residential ratepayers. Hobbs says that RUCO, under her administration, has "helped save'' more than $321 million.
But that number does not mean actual cost reductions.
Instead, it reflects the difference between what utilities sought in rate hikes -- a figure that is rarely ever granted -- and the final rates approved by the Arizona Corporation Commission. And the claim also comes as Arizona Public Service and Tucson Electric Power, the state's two largest electric utilities, are seeking a new 14% and 13% increase, respectively.
Hobbs separately has said her claim about lower utility costs is based on her use of both federal and state funds to provide bill assistance and home weatherization programs, though eligibility is based on income.
Biggs acknowledged that it's going to take cash to combat what is in the governor's TV spots as well as get his own message out.
"Money does matter, that's for sure,'' he said. And he said more is now being spent since the end of the primary.
An aide to Biggs said the campaign spent $120,000 in such ads in the past week and will spend about the same amount in the coming week. But with limited dollars, Biggs said, his ads have to be "targeted.''
Biggs said he remains confident that the Republican governors, recognizing the importance of the race -- and the rare chance to unseat an incumbent Democrat -- will start spending money. And he said there are others who will weigh in, if not giving directly to his campaign, finding ways to build public support or attack Hobbs.
That includes the political action committee of Turning Point which, even before he had won the primary, had spent $458,000 on his behalf.
With limits on how much individuals can donate, money spent on "independent expenditures'' can be crucial.
In 2022, for example, the Hobbs campaign spent $14.7 million. But she also benefited from another $5.8 million spent on her behalf.
Conversely, other groups spent $10.8 million in attack ads.
The DGA's Newton said the $10 million is just an initial deposit into the race and that more money could be poured into Arizona. He said that should not be surprising -- and not just because of the Republican edge in the state and Trump's 187,382 vote margin of victory here in 2024.
"The DGA is very much an incumbent protection organization,'' he said.
"And I'd like to think we're pretty good at it,'' Newton said, having managed to preserve the administrations of 26 of the last 27 Democrats who were seeking reelection. The lone failure, he said, was in 2022 in Nevada when incumbent Steve Sisolak was beaten by Republican Joe Lombardo.
All this comes as Hobbs, flush with money and outside financial support to wage an extensive TV campaign, continues to refuse to say whether she will debate Biggs. Instead, the incumbent has said it is too early to make that decision.
But Hobbs has a record of avoiding head-to-head televised confrontations that put her on equal footing with foes.
Her last debate was in October 2018 when, as a state senator, she ran against Republican Steve Gaynor who had defeated incumbent Michele Reagan in the primary. She won that race by roughly 20,000 votes.
Hobbs, however, refused to debate former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez, her foe in the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Nor would she face off against Kari Lake in the general election.
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