TEL AVIV, Israel — As Israel marks three years since Hamas launched its surprise Oct. 7 attacks, Israelis are reeling from new revelations in Israeli and U.S. media that the country had been repeatedly warned by its regional allies that Hamas was planning to attack.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was personally warned about a potential Hamas attack, and his security agencies were notified repeatedly, in the weeks and days leading up to Oct. 7, 2023, four people in the Middle East with direct knowledge of the warnings told NPR.
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz, The New York Times and The Atlantic first reported about the warnings.
Netanyahu has denied he was warned, calling the reports "fake news" and filing a defamation lawsuit last week against Israeli news outlets that published them. He and his defense minister have issued new warnings that Hamas could try to attack or "challenge" Israel on this Oct. 7 memorial day and leading up to national elections later this month.
But the Oct. 7, 2023, security failure — as well as Netanyahu's repeated refusal to take responsibility for it — has become a lightning rod in Israel as the prime minister seeks a new term in national elections this month.
"You didn't protect my son," yelled out one bereaved Israeli father whose son was killed in the Hamas-led attack, as the prime minister spoke at a memorial ceremony this week for the victims.
A message from Hamas' leader in Gaza
One warning came directly from the leader of Hamas in Gaza weeks before Oct. 7, a Palestinian mediator told NPR and other media outlets.
Former Palestinian Authority official Sufian Abu Zaida said he helped mediate secret Hamas-Israel talks for more than a year leading up to Oct. 7. He said Hamas wanted Israel to release Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and offered in exchange to release two living Israeli hostages and the bodies of two Israeli soldiers held in Gaza for years. But he said Israel was unwilling to release as many prisoners as Hamas had demanded.
On Sept. 14, 2023, Abu Zaida said, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar dictated a message for him to deliver to Israel: "By the end of September, we will put cards on the table. There will be an earthquake in the negotiations, and the Israelis should prepare to empty their prisons."
He did not know what kind of earthquake Sinwar meant, but he said he sent the message to an Israeli intelligence official who acknowledged receiving it and to Mohammed Dahlan, a Palestinian confidant of the leader of the United Arab Emirates.
"What happened [on] the 7th of October is needless," Abu Zaida told NPR.
A telephone call from the Emirati leader
Days before the Oct. 7 attacks, the leader of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, called Netanyahu and told him that Hamas' leader in Gaza was planning a big assault against Israel, according to a person close to Dahlan. Dahlan was the Palestinian Authority's head of security in Gaza before Hamas seized control of the territory in 2007.
The Emirati leader told Netanyahu in a phone call that lasted more than 40 minutes that a "quake" would hit the region if no progress was achieved regarding a prisoner deal between Hamas and Israel, the person said.
The person spoke to NPR on condition of anonymity because of the diplomatic sensitivity of the call. The phone call was previously reported by Haaretz and The New York Times.
The UAE did not deny the report, saying only that it maintained dialogue with Israel.
Egypt's top intelligence chief warned Israel, an official says
A senior Egyptian official told NPR that Egypt had specific intelligence about Hamas movements and that Egypt's head of intelligence at the time, Abbas Kamel, had traveled to Israel with two other senior officials and met with Israel's Mossad and Shin Bet intelligence chiefs.
The official said Kamel relayed a warning that Gaza was on the verge of an "explosion" because of Israel's blockade, the condition of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails and concerns that Israel might move to annex the occupied West Bank.
The official was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. The Atlantic reported that Kamel's visit to Israel was on Sept 26.
A former Israeli adviser says Egypt repeatedly warned Israel
Nimrod Novik, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum think tank and a former top adviser to late Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, told NPR that he was informed before Oct. 7 by a person with firsthand knowledge that Egypt had delivered warnings to several senior Israeli officials that "Gaza is about to explode in your face."
Novik said one warning was an "urgent and dramatic message" from Egypt, delivered to a person close to Netanyahu some 10 days prior to Oct. 7.
"I'm certain that the issue of the early warnings on October 7 is going to continue to play with heightened emotions as we approach Election Day," said Novik. "This is going to be an indictment for history, not just for the elections."
Netanyahu has blamed Israeli security organizations for failing to stop the Oct. 7 attacks. He and his government have yet to establish a state commission of inquiry to investigate the failures around Oct. 7, despite public demand.
The new reports about warnings issued to Israel "actually turn the story on its head," pointing the finger right back at the prime minister, said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
"It violates the basic narrative that Netanyahu tries to tell Israelis," said Talshir.
NPR's Aya Batrawy contributed to this report.
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