By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX -- The state's jobless rate jumped a full point last month as Arizona gets the first taste of what is likely to be even worse numbers going forward.
In March the state shed 7,400 jobs, setting the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 5.5 percent.
But the loss is just part of the picture. Doug Walls, the research administrator for the state Office of Economic Opportunity said that employers typically add 10,700 workers between February and March.
And this is just the tip of the economic iceberg.
The March figures come from a survey conducted during the second week of the month.
That is before Gov. Doug Ducey issued his emergency orders closing some businesses he considered nonessential. And it is before he implemented his stay-at-home order, further reducing economic activity.
That leaves the question of how high the state's jobless rate can get.
The 5.5 percent unemployment rate is based on nearly 197,000 people out looking for work with fewer than 3.4 million actually employed. That is 35,000 more than the month before.
But in the past four weeks alone nearly 350,000 people have applied for unemployment insurance.
Even using the February employment figures as a base, that means 506,000 now out of work. Factor that into the total state labor force -- those working and those looking -- and it produces an unemployment rate of more than 14 percent.
